FRANCE

摘要

The 'flash' release of the Q4 national accounts showed that GDP growth moderated slightly in Q4 2015, from 0.3% (q-o-q) in the previous quarter to 0.2%. This was expected, given November's terrorist attacks and its associated impact on consumption and tourism in particular. In y-o-y terms, GDP growth accelerated from 1.1 % to 1.3%, allowing the economy to record its fastest annual pace of growth in four years. 1.1% growth for 2015 is significantly higher than the 0.2% figure recorded in 2014 but was still not enough to prevent unemployment from increasing over the course of last year. Many observers believe that temporary factors like the attacks and unseasonably mild weather hit consumption in Q4 (it contracted by -0.4% over the quarter) and that a modest rebound is expected for Q1 2016. Indeed, December consumption of goods ended the year positively: after a 1.4% (m-o-m) contraction in November, the following month rebounded by +0.7% which, even then, was held back by an 8.6% slump in energy spending. The extended decline in oil prices continues to impact on inflation: the CPI saw zero growth in 2015 as a whole, while January recorded a sharp -1.0% (m-o-m) decline in prices on the back of winter sales discounts and further retrenchment in petrol prices. Our panel's 2016 inflation forecast has been downgraded again.