SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS

摘要

Changes in G-7 Quarterly Forecasts f or GDP contrasts the December 2016 consensus projections in blue (pages 3, 28 and 29) with those from June 2016 and December 2015. In general, the outlook for all countries (except Japan) has deteriorated since our June survey. GDP growth in the US has been below-par in 2016 but could pick up pace next year supported by strong personal consumption and firmer manufacturing production. Italian forecasts have tumbled amid renewed political uncertainty after the resignation of the prime minister. Heightened concerns over the fragile banking sector could yet have more far-reaching implications on the Euro bloc. Key elections next year in France and Germany add risk to near-term sentiment in these respective economies. Brexit has softened the UK outlook, although it could still be sometime before a formal EU exit is finalized.