CANADA

摘要

Canada's outlook has been affected by following the US presidential election which heightened concerns over the future of the NAFTA trade deal between Canada, the US and Mexico. Over 75% of Canadian exports head south of the border, with many US-Canadian industries having integrated supply chains. Canadian policymakers are taking a pragmatic view, however, and the consensus shows little sign of deterioration thus far. Moreover, latest data surprised on the upside. Q3 GDP beat expectations, coming in at 0.9% (q-o-q), compared with a -0.3% fall in Q2. This Q2 weakness was due to the Fort McMurray wildfires which shut down oil sands production. The rebound in Q3 reflects oil coming backonline (energy exports jumped by 6.1% q-o-q). Total goods & services exports rose by 2.2%. Household consumption growth, meanwhile, accelerated from 0.5% growth in Q2 to 0.6%, leaving the y-o-y rate unchanged at 2.2%. Child welfare spending by the federal government may have helped to support consumption. However, machinery & equipment investment remained weak, falling by a sizeable -3.2% over the quarter which indicates a notable slowdown in business spending. The y-o-y rate fell to -5.3%, and this has in turn worsened our panel's forecasts for this variable and raised uncertainty over underlying softness in activity as a whole.