UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

2016 Gross Fixed Investment Forecasts Trending Down Uncertainty is growing amid turmoil over the UK's future in the EU, which will be decided in a vote on June 23. Recent surveys suggest that investment plans are being kept on hold as companies ponder the potential implications of Brexit and future access to the EU single market (see page 30 for more). The Bank of England recently warned that the referendum represents "the most significant near-term domestic risk to financial stability." Gross fixed investment fell by 1.1% (q-o-q) in Q4 2015, of which business investment declined by a revised 2.0%. Prior to Q4, investment had not contracted since Q1 2013. Productivity revisions (measured in terms of output per hour) by the Office for Budget Responsibility in March have worsened medium-term growth prospects whilst also damaging the chancellor's hopes of meeting his budget surplus target by FY19/20. Productivity is key to boosting long-term growth but has barely risen since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. With tax receipts forecast to suffer this year, tougher spending cuts may be required. Public sector borrowing is already set to exceed its FY15/16 target of £72.2bn according to the consensus estimate of £76.9bn.