BREXIT- PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES OF LEAVING THE EU

摘要

UK prime minister David Cameron has announced a referendum on whether the UK should stay in or leave the EU. The referendum is scheduled for June 23,2016. The announcement has caused volatility in the financial markets and much analysis from political and economic commentators, not just in the UK but around Europe and the world. With a sizeable portion of the UK population viewed as 'Eurosceptic,' the outcome is very unclear. We therefore asked our UK and Euro zone panellists (on an "Answers Confidential" basis) to assess both the probability and the consequences of staying in or leaving the EU in terms of GDP growth and Gross Fixed Investment growth in the UK (and on GDP growth alone in the Euro area). We also asked for Euro vs UK pound currency forecasts overthe next 3,12 and 24 months. Finally, we have included some of the costs and benefits of a Brexit outcome, as mentioned by a few of our respondents. Given the uncertainties attached to quantitative predictions associated with political scenarios, only a modest number of panellists provided numerical forecasts regarding the possibility of Brexit occurring.