ITALY

摘要

The 0.4% (q-o-q) expansion in Q2 GDP growth confirmed a relatively upbeat economic performance in the first half of the year. The growth rate equalled that of Q1 2017 and Q4 2016 (revised up from 0.3%), hinting at the recovery becoming more resilient than at any point in the past few years. In y-o-y terms, GDP growth climbed by 1.5% in Q2, its fastest pace for six years. Confidence has been bolstered by an upturn in industrial production, higher employment levels and a brighter outlook in the fragile banking sector. Production was up by 1.1% (q-o-q) in Q2, boosted by notable increases in the output of capital and durable goods. Alongside this, the manufacturing PMI has been on a strong upward bent since the back-end of 2016, reaching its highest mark for over six years in August as a result of sharp rises in new orders and output. Meanwhile, employment in Italy has re-emerged above 23 million for the first time since 2008. Job creation reflects cautious optimism overthe business environment, particularly by exporters who are benefiting from broadening economic activity throughout the Euro area. The 2017 GDP growth consensus has edged up to 1.3%, though still adrift of the latest Euro zone projection of 2.1%.