SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS

摘要

Changes in G-7 Quarterly Forecasts for GDP contrasts the March 2017 consensus projections in blue (pages 3,28 and 29) with those from September 2016 and March 2016. The 2017 outlook for the US is marginally weaker, but the Fed's intention to implement more rate hikes this year indicates the economy is heating up. Japan is set to lose steam beyond the Q4 2016 1.6% (y-o-y) outturn, despite a recent surge in business investment. Private consumption remains notably weak. Robust growth in Q3 and Q4 has vastly lifted the UK's near-term prospects. However, activity may slow as the year progresses, while inflation curbs consumer spending and Brexit negotiations press ahead. The upcoming presidential election poses risks to the French economy, and in fact, heightened political uncertainty may be the biggest drag on an otherwise stable growth scenario in the Euro economies.