GERMANY

摘要

Economy More Buoyant Entering Into 2017 Favourable indicators in December suggested thatthe economy ended 2016 in relatively robust fashion. Business sentiment edged up in December, as did the PMI indicator for manufacturing, which reached a 35-month high. Observers expect the GDP expansion in Q4to surpass Q3's 0.2% (q-o-q) increase, as the robust labour market continues to underpin consumer spending. Unemployed numbers fell again in December and 2016's annual average unemployment rate of 6.1% marked the third consecutive year of lower joblessness. Despite fierce debate over the implementation of a national minimum wage in 2015 (which rose from €8.50 to €8.84 at the beginning of 2017), a record-low rate of unemployment has surfaced. Boosting wages for the lowest earners has helped to widen the trend in spending across the economy. A similarly resilient consumption performance in 2017 appears less certain, following the onset of higher inflation. Prices accelerated by 1.7% (y-o-y) in December, more than double November's 0.8% increase. Additional rises close to the ECB's 2% target may promote calls for an end to its bond-buying programme. This may be a way off, though, given comparatively weak price rises in other Euro area countries.