UNITED STATES

摘要

Market anticipation for fiscal stimulus and the rolling back of regulation from the new administration appears to be waning. With the government's protectionist bent taking centre stage amid a spate of executive orders, it has been a volatile few weeks for the administration. Political news has overshadowed latest economic news, although the Trump campaign's criticism that the labor market measure of unemployment (it edged up to 4.8% in January) does not represent the true state of joblessness (especially the long-term jobless) has also shone an unexpected spotlight on economicdata. The January jobs report pointed to strong payrolls growth of +227,000 compared with a December showing of 157,000. However, the softness in hourly earnings has raised concerns over purchasing power. The advance release of the Q4 national accounts came in slightly lower than our panel was expecting: GDP rose by 1.9% (q-o-q annualized), down from a 3.5% surge in Q3. Domestic demand was a solid contributor to activity. Personal consumption increased by 2.5%, though this was down from 3.0% in the previous quarter and 4.3% in Q2. Consumption at the end of last year was buoyed by greater spending on utilities on the back of colder weather. Business investment rose from +1.0% (q-o-q annualized) in Q2 to 1.4% in Q3 and 2.4% in Q4. This was not enough to prevent investment from recording a -0.4% decline for 2016 as a whole, but our panel's forecast for this variable has been upgraded.