FRANCE

摘要

Preliminary Q4 GDP expanded by 0.4% (q-o-q) in the final three months of last year, doubling the previous quarter's 0.2% advance. On a y-o-y basis, Q4 posted a 1.1 % outturn, and brought GDP growth in 2016 as a whole also to 1.1 %, in line with the previous year's rate. Household consumption was the biggest contributor to activity, surging by 0.6% (q-o-q) in Q4 after a negligible 0.1 % rise in Q3. This helped to push the y-o-y rate up from 1.4% in Q3 to 2.1 %, fuelled in part by holiday spending but also because of base year effects. Q4 2015 was marred by terrorism and a security clampdown which affected consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, business investment was more positive at the end of last year, soaring from 0.1 % (q-o-q) in Q3 to 1.3%. The consensus for business investment has risen this month. Overall, final domestic demand contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q4 versus 0.2 percentage points in Q3. Surprisingly, net trade also contributed to growth, by a smaller 0.1 percentage points, although stockbuilding subtracted. 2016 could have accelerated further but the terrorist attacks have dented tourism while volatile weather hit agricultural output. The national accounts release bodes well going into 2017, underscored by positive PMI readings for retail, services and manufacturing in January. However, political uncertainties ahead of the presidential run-off have widened the disparity between French and German bond yields.