UNITED STATES

摘要

The second preliminary release of the Q3 national accounts saw an uptick in the GDP outturn. Instead of growing by 3.0% (q-o-q annualized) as previously reported, GDP advanced by 3.3%. This constitutes a second straight quarter of annualized growth above 3%, for the first time since 2014. Looking at the expenditure breakdown, personal consumption, which slowed from the previous quarter's 3.3% (q-o-q annualized) surge, saw its outturn downgraded slightly to 2.3% in Q3. This was due mostly to slower spending on services, although durables expenditure surged from an annualized 7.6% in Q2 to 8.1 %. However, the overall moderation in consumption was offset by gains in investment, especially in inventories and equipment. Overall business investment advanced by afirm 4.7%, revised upwards from the previously-announced 3.9% figure. This was somewhat slower than Q2's 6.7% jump and a 7.1 % leap in Q1, but all three quarters this year represent a notable firming in the US investment picture - especially considering last year when investment fell by -0.6% as a whole. This year's forecast for business spending has been upgraded to 4.6% this month, a pace it is expected to maintain going into 2018. Elsewhere, new orders of factory goods fell by -0.1 % (m-o-m) in October, due to atumble in civilian aircraft orders. Core capital orders excluding aircraft (a proxy for investment spending trends) rose by 0.3%, though, following a +2.3% gain in September.