ITALY

摘要

Momentum ticked up in Q3 as Istat reported GDP growth of 0.4% (q-o-q) and 1.7% (y-o-y), the latter marking the strongest y-o-y outturn since Q1 2011. Data showed that the economy performed well in most areas: gross fixed investment accelerated 3% (q-o-q) and 4.6% (y-o-y), household consumption rose steadily and exports added impetus. While the Euro zone recovery has promoted investment and trade, households have benefited from a sustained period of ultra-low interest rates and subdued consumer prices. Prices increased by 0.9% (y-o-y) in November and may rise by only 1.3% on average this year, well adrift of the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of just below 2%. Employment numbers are back around pre-crisis levels, and the labour inactivity rate is near a record low. Labour market fragility is still apparent, though. Lofty youth unemployment of 34.7% in October highlights inadequate opportunities for young persons, encouraging many to seek work abroad. A shrinking working-age population threatens to become a deep-rooted problem in decades to come. Meanwhile, industrial activity has been particularly brightthis year following back-to-back increases of 1.2% (q-o-q) and 1.4% in Q2 and Q3, respectively. A contraction in September output casts doubt on its resilience heading into Q4, although the manufacturing PMI for October identified sharp advances in output, orders and employment. Business confidence remained elevated in November and our panel's production expectations have risen again this month.