EURO ZONE

摘要

The first release of Q2 GDP (without the expenditure breakdown) showed activity growing by 0.6% (q-o-q), up from an already upbeat 0.5% rate in Q1 and its twelfth straight quarter of Euro area expansion. In y-o-y terms, growth accelerated from 1.9% to 2.1%, its fastest pace in 6 years. Individual countries like France, Spain, Austria and Belgium also released Q2 data, confirming that the recovery is relatively broadbased, thanks to improving external fundamentals and muted inflationary pressures. This is helping to support both export demand and consumption. In addition, the fiscal austerity of the sovereign debt crisis appears to have moderated. The outlook for the Euro area remains optimistic, with our panel's 2017 GDP expectations, not just for the currency bloc but also some of the core countries, seeing upgrades this month. Elsewhere, the flash estimate for July consumer price inflation came in at 1.3% (y-o-y), the same rate as in June and down from 1.4% in May. The July estimate means that the CPI likely contracted by -0.5% (m-o-m), prompting our panel's forecast for this variable to falter (see chart, bottom).