FRANCE

摘要

Manufacturing production declined in February for a third consecutive month. Output fell by -0.6% (m-o-m) following a -0.9% contraction in January and -1.1% drop in December. This left the y-o-y rate in contraction in February, at -0.5%. Industrial production as a whole declined even further in m-o-m terms, by -1.6%. The disappointing manufacturing news was unexpected. Indeed, soft data like the March PMI for manufacturing had been pointing to stronger output momentum. New orders in March increased at their fastest pace since May 2011 while output was also reported to be up. The PMI for the services sector also stepped up at the end of Q1. However, this has not yet translated into production data. The disparity between hard and soft data extends to consumption indicators. The household sentiment index was stable in March at its long-term average following steady increases since mid-2016. Opinion on households' future personal financial situation deteriorated a little, but the report overall was not negative. By contrast, consumption of goods contracted by -0.8% (m-o-m) in February, following January's gain but December's even sharper decline. This came on the back of a marked -10.9% monthly drop in energy consumption due to unusually mild February weather. March's retail PMI has also shown renewed weakness on the back of political and security uncertainties, an element which might impact spending and investment decisions through to the presidential and legislative elections set for April-June.