FRANCE

摘要

The second release of Q4 GDP was upbeat, advancing by 0.6% (q-o-q) compared with 0.5% in Q3, while the y-o-y rate rose from 2.3% to 2.5%. The economy was helped by a 1.6% (q-o-q) surge in business investment; in y-o-y terms, investment accelerated from an already-high 5.0% outturn in Q3 to 6.2%. The government is projecting a 1.7% GDP growth rate for this year, but largely because of the upbeat pace of business spending, our panel now expects activity to surpass 2%. Going into 2018, the Banque de France expects slightly slower 0.4% (q-o-q) growth in Q1. Policymakers have been buoyed by good news on the jobs front, with mainland unemployment dropping sharply from 9.3% in Q3 to 8.6% in Q4. This has buoyed our panel's forecasts for the variable. The news prompted increased media scrutiny of major skills gaps and worker shortages in certain sectors, pushing the government to suggest an overhaul France's professional training system in order to better prepare workers for the disappearance of low-skilled jobs to automation. Not all economic news was positive, though. January recorded another sharp decline, of -1.9% (m-o-m), in goods' consumption after a -1.2% showing for December. Exceptionally mild weather triggered a -7.6% (m-o-m) fall in energy spending while purchases of transport materials, especially cars, also fell. The consumption outlook has faltered.