SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS

摘要

Changes in G-7 Quarterly Forecasts for GDP contrasts the June 2018 consensus projections in blue (pages 3,28 and 29) with those from December 2017 and June 2017. US growth is predicted to peak at 3% in Q1 2019, boosted by fiscal stimulus. Momentum may be lost thereafter as higher inflation and tighter financial conditions take some bite out of domestic demand. Charts for Germany, France and Italy highlight little change in expectations from six months ago. GDP stumbled throughout the Euro area in Q1, though, amid political uncertainty and global trade tensions which curbed export demand. The UK economy has been weighed down by a slowdown in household consumption, as well as softer activity in the vital services sector. The economic expansion in Canada may stabilise around 2%, while a planned consumption tax could deflate Japan's growth in Q4 2019.