JAPAN

摘要

Following the -0.1 % (q-o-q) decline in private consumption in Q1, latest data indicates that Japan continues to suffer from sluggish consumer activity. Figures for May showed a -3.9% (y-o-y) decline in spending, the largest since August 2016, as a result of consumers putting off dining out, food and leisure. Moreover, the latest Tankan survey for Q2 also showed that business confidence fell amongst major manufacturers for the second consecutive quarter, although overall sentiment remains relatively high. Meanwhile, industrial production decreased by -0.2% (m-o-m) on the back of three straight months of improvement. However, despite these disappointments, policymakers can at least take heart from a sharp increase in real wages of 1.3% (y-o-y) in May, whilst both the manufacturing and services PMI displayed strong expansions in June, with readings of 53.0 and 51.4, respectively. Looking ahead, Japan recently became the second country to ratify the revamped 11-nation Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal, an initiative which encompasses around 13% of global output and one which the government hopes will provide an extra ¥8tn to the Japanese economy. Positive developments regarding a free-trade agreement with the European Union also bode well forfuture growth prospects.