FORECAST PROBABILITIES

摘要

In addition to their central (most likely) forecasts, our panellists also assessed the probabilities of a range of alternative outcomes for each of the listed variables, i.e. GDP growth and consumer price inflation in 2018, as well as for oil prices and four major exchange rates at end-January 2019. This analysis attempts to quantify the risk of these indicators turning out to be significantly higher or lower than individual point forecasts currently suggest, and allows us to compile consensus probability distributions identifying areas of greatest uncertainty in the outlook for the G-7 industrialized countries. Please note that the percentage probabilities may not always add to 100% because of rounding.