FRANCE

摘要

Data for Q4 2017 suggest that the economy was on a firm footing at the end of last year. Q3 GDP growth was already solid, having advanced by a revised 2.3% (y-o-y) in the September quarter (from 2.2% in the previous release), supported by domestic demand. Household consumption accelerated from 0.3% (q-o-q) in Q2 to 0.6% in Q3 while business investment maintained a firm 1.1%pace. Net trade subtracted from growth, though. December's manufacturing PMI showed a rise in new orders from both domestic and international clients, which is helping to lift optimism regarding external demand. A slight slowdown in services activity mitigated some of the acceleration in the manufacturing PMI. Still, our panel's 2018 manufacturing production forecast has benefited from the steady improvement in the sector, rising from 2.1 % last month to 2.4%. October's 2.7% (m-o-m) surge in manufacturing production, propelled by gains in machinery & equipment goods' output, helped to lift our panel's outlook; y-o-y manufacturing jumped from 3.2% in September to a massive 6.7% in October. However, November output (released after our survey deadline) saw payback of -1.0% (m-o-m). On the consumption front, after a depressed -2.1 % (m-o-m) contraction in October, November goods' consumption saw a +2.2% rebound. Unseasonably cold temperatures spurred a +7.6% (m-o-m) surge in energy consumption, just as warmer-than-usual conditions in October subtracted from energy. Textile and food shopping also rebounded, while purchases of transport materials dropped.