UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

A 1.8% expansion in GDP last year eased concerns of a marked Brexit-related deceleration. Instead, resilient consumption and an export-led revival in industrial production enabled the economy to surpass expectations, boosted by an upside surprise in Q4 in which growth climbed by 0.5% (q-o-q), from 0.4% in Q3. Services contributed strongly to Q4 activity with a 0.6% (q-o-q) rise, while manufacturing saw an eye-catching 1.3% (q-o-q) jump in output. Total production was less vibrant amid a drag in energy, caused by December's shutdown to a key North Sea pipeline. Manufacturing expanded by 2.8% across the year and businesses are hoping that the booming global recovery accelerates demand. Construction posted a 5.1% annual increase in 2017, although a third consecutive q-o-q contraction in Q4 indicates that output may not keep pace at high levels. Meanwhile, a strong jobs reading in November pushed the employment rate to 75.3%, the highest level for several decades. Slower jobs growth back in October appears to have been a blip, although observers have warned of volatility with Brexit ramifications so uncertain. Weekly earnings improved, rising by 2.5% between September and November against the same period a year earlier. Still, fears that spending may tail off reflect high inflation (3% y-o-y in January) and mixed results for retailers last year; the 1.9% increase in retail sales was the weakest since 2013.