CANADA

摘要

A revival in factory output lead to Canadian GDP's best monthly print in H2 2017. November GDP accelerated to 0.4% (m-o-m) from zero growth in October. Momentum was driven mostly by the goods-producing industries, which rose collectively by +0.8% following a -0.5% decline in the previous month. A massive 1.8% monthly surge in manufacturing accounted for half of the gain in overall GDP growth. The sector benefited from an end to temporary shutdowns in the automobile and chemical industries and, as a result, motor vehicle production soared 14% over the month while chemicals rose 5.3% after three straight months of declines. Elsewhere, utilities output rose 0.7% (m-o-m) in November while mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction recorded a 0.5% increase after a -1.1 % fall in October. Industrial output as a whole jumped 1.1 % in November, and this positive news from the production sector has helped to boost our panel's forecasts for industrial production in 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, services puttered along at a 0.3% m-o-m rate in November, while retail trade halved from a 1.2% pace on October to 0.6% in November. Still, even with that and a slowdown in the second half of last year, November GDP is tracking around 3.5% in y-o-y terms. Our panel predicts GDP growth advanced by 2.9% for last year as a whole, more than double the 1.4% pace seen in 2016.