UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

Prime Minister - Mr. Boris Johnson (Conservative Party). Parliament - The Conservative party won 365 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons (lower house), in the December 2019 general election. Next Election - December 2024 (general election). Nominal GDP - £2,112bn (2020). Population - 67.9mn (mid-year, 2020). $/£ Exchange Rate -1.284 (average, 2020). The government's gamble to lift all remaining legal restrictions on July 19 should give the economy a major boost, with some experts hopeful that GDP could return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year. While the decision was on a knife edge due to a marked rise in Covid infections, the UK's strong vaccination drive has moderated the risks of the National Health Service being overwhelmed as had been the case during earlier waves of the virus. The "pingdemic" -warning those in close contact with an infected individual to self isolate-has punctured initial momentum in Q3, though, with services providers and supermarkets reporting temporary shutdowns and empty shelves as worker shortages ramped up. Others have suggested that the golden phase of pent-up demand may have already passed, with the recent surge in cost pressures possibly curbing the appetite for consumer spending. In its August 5 monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) warned that inflation (CPI measure) could soon exceed 4% amid higher demand for raw materials, elevated freight costs and a significant jump in oil prices (page 27) which has sent fuel prices to an eight-year peak. The Bank admitted that modest tightening of policy may be required overthe next three years, but that current pressures should fade as global supply restraints ease. Still, policymakers seem content not to act prematurely in withdrawing support for the economy. The phasing out of the furlough scheme next month, in particular, threatens to alter developments in the labour market even though the BoE is confident that the jobless rate may have peaked at 4.8%.