ITALY

摘要

Prime Minister - Mr. Mario Draghi. Parliament - Draghi was sworn in on February 13, 2021 after the previous coalition between the Five-Star Movement and the Democratic Party (since September 2019) collapsed in January 2021. Next Elections - 2022 (presidential); 2023 (parliamentary). Nominal GDP - Euro 1,788bn (2019). Population -60.6mn (mid-year, 2019). $/Euro Exchange Rate - 1.119 (average, 2019).Held back by limitations on business operations and cross-border travel, the economy sank back into technical recession in Q1 after Istat reported a -0.4% (q-o-q) decline in GDP after a -1.8% fall in Q4 2020. While the full breakdown is not yet available, the improvement in manufacturing was unable to compensate for weak net exports and consumption, the latter hampered by public curfews and shutdowns throughout the services sector. Looking ahead, though, many observers are optimistic of an upswing if the improving Covid vaccination program continues at pace, and as consumers prepare to spend savings accumulated over the crisis. The 2021 GDP consensus avoided a fifth straight downgrade this month and instead saw a 0.3pp bounce to 4.2%, below the latest government projection of 4.5%. The reopening of restaurants and bars in outdoor environments on April 26-a week earlier than planned - bodes well for consumer confidence which crept up in April. Meanwhile, industrial production's increase of 0.9% (q-o-q) in Q1 was a positive start to the year, and a strong manufacturing PMI reading for April points to the sector heating up as business conditions rebound.