UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

After a massive -19.8% (q-o-q) dent in Q2 output, the+15.5% revival in Q3 GDP underlined a solid pickup across all major sectors, albeit still languishing -9.6% below its peak in Q4 2019. There remains great fragility over the outlook ahead, despite the promise tied to the Covid-19 vaccination programme which is viewed as decisive in the gradual reopening of the economy. London and Brussels have been locked in talks just weeks before the transition arrangement expires at the end of 2020 and failure to get a trade deal over the line risks further economic catastrophe twinned with the health crisis, and likely downgrades to 2021 growth expectations. Just this month, the OECD slashed its 2021 GDP projection from +7.6% to +4.2%, below the Treasury's 5.5% projection in November and the current consensus of 5.3%. Moreover, there is dwindling additional scope for stimulus from either the government or Bank of England to assist an upturn, after the almighty response to the pandemic. Bank Governor Andrew Bailey added that a disorderly Brexit could have lasting effects and put significant strains on business operations and jobs. Nevertheless, in his annual spending review in November, Chancellor Rishi Sunak earmarked more spending on public services next year, and a new £4.6bn scheme to help those out of work, while at the same time freezing public sector pay and cutting the international aid budget.