GERMANY

摘要

Spiralling rates of Covid-19 infections forced an extension of the national lockdown until the end of January. It took effect in mid-Decemberafteritwas apparent that the "light" tightening of measures in November was not enough to curb the virus' surge. Renewed disruption to large segments of the economy has dampened the mood over the scope of this year's GDP growth rebound from the-5.0% contraction in 2020 (a preliminary estimate revealed by the German Statistics Office just before we went to print. The 2021 GDP consensus slipped to +3.7%, with Q1 2021 possibly at risk of a modest q-o-q contraction. In the bigger picture, though, the German economy has less ground to claw back than many of its peers, due to decisive and wide-ranging support packages for businesses and households in the early stages of the pandemic, coupled with underlying labour market strength and manufacturing activity continuing at a reasonable pace. High frequency data remained fairly upbeat in November, with retail sales rising by +1.9% (m-o-m) and manufacturing orders jumping +2.3% in the same month. Manufacturing also saw another strong PMI reading in December, although the services sector suffered a decline (albeit at a slower pace than its six-month low in November). The short-time work programme has averted a sudden flurry of job losses, although employmentdid decline overall in 2020, ending a 14-year run of expansion.