ITALY

摘要

Latest revisions to national accounts data revealed a marginally worse Q2 contraction of -13% (q-o-q), from -12.8%. Since Italy wasone of thefirst countries into lockdown and unwound its restrictions earlier, hopes on a Q3 rebound have built, especially after a series of sharp industrial production advances. August output rose +7.7% (m-o-m) from +7.0% in July, while pent-up consumer spending has propelled retail sales above levels before the pandemic. Italy has reported rising virus cases (not yet to the extent of France and Spain), increasing speculation of possible localised curfews being reintroduced. The downbeat export environment and capacity constraints in the hospitality and leisure sectors were beginning to hinder momentum anyway, with the services PMI falling away in August and September after a brief resurgence.