FRANCE

摘要

Statistics office INSEE reduced its forecast for Q3 French GDP from +17.0% (q-o-q) estimated last month to +16.0%. (Our own consensus forecast last month for the Q3 rebound was already somewhat smaller at +13.1 % q-o-q). In a short economic note on October 6, INSEE highlighted some factors affecting its outlook for H2 2020. First was asignificant resurgence in Covid-19 infections since the summer, as well as air travel adversely hit by the global pandemic. INSEE also pointed to high uncertainty over service indicators and raised the possibility of a pause or even decline in activity. Manufacturing has been on a broader recovering bent: despite falling by -7.0% in y-o-y terms (a ninth straight month of decline), August rose by +1.0% (m-o-m) following a +4.5% increase in July. In addition, September's PMI rose above the 50-markto 51.2, as goods producers became more optimistic about output over the next 12 months, and new orders rose a second straight month (foreign orders rose for the first time since January). Our panel's 2020 production forecast has improved a little, but there remain growing downside risks. Indeed, on October 14, President Macron announced a 9pm-6am curfew in Paris, Marseilles and other Covid hotspots.