CANADA

摘要

Q2 quarterly GDP collapsed by one of its steepest declines on record, -11.5% (q-o-q), following a-2.1% fall in Q1. In y-o-y terms, the economy contracted by -13.0% in Q2. Sharp falls in consumption, investment and trade - due to the lockdown and border closures - led the decline. However, after a -11.7% (m-o-m) decline in April, May GDP growth posted a +4.8% rise and June output accelerated by +6.5%. Our panel's 2020 GDP forecast has improved this month as a result. Goods-producing industries recorded a +7.5% (m-o-m) jump in June on the back of a still-robust +9.4% rebound in construction and a+14.6% surge in manufacturing. More factories operating at higher levels boosted manufacturing, not to mention US-linked auto plants scaled up production. The latter was reflected in a +57% rise in transport equipment. Goods production held up even as mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction declined by -4.7% (m-o-m) in June (due to lowerdrilling and rig services). The Bank of Canada governor warned in a recent speech that the global drop in oil prices was adversely affecting resource sectors. The economy still needs support given the huge recession and uneven recovery. That includes ultra-low interest rates (which the central bank pledged to continue until the country regained pre-pandemic levels of growth and employment).