UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

The UK economy posted a +6.6% (m-o-m) increase in GDP growth in July, albeit slowing a bit from +8.7% in June. All key sectors accelerated, including services (+6.1%), underlining a steady recovery after the unprecedented plunge in March and April when most of the economy was brought to a halt. Manufacturing and construction also picked up, while retail sales are above February levels due to a string of strong monthly advances. Nevertheless, ONS data showed that the economy in July was still 11.7% adrift of its pre-crisis level. Beyond the summer, growth may shift down a gear as reopened sectors near capacity limits and temporary measures such as the 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme end. Moreover, the government's job retention scheme - crucial for preventing an immediate deterioration in the financial situation of businesses and households - expires in October. Some government officials have made the case for an extension targeting hard-hit areas such as hospitality and aviation, but others believe that it would only succeed in delaying inevitable operational adjustments by firms. Bank of England policymakers have expressed fresh warnings that any return to full capacity could take many years. Inflation, which slowed to +0.2% (y-o-y) in August, could be held back by the temporary VAT deduction and weak domestic pressures.