UNITED STATES

摘要

Data for April and May confirmed the deep decline which points to Q2 GDP as a whole likely recording one of its worst quarterly results ever. With Q1 GDP having managed only +0.3% (y-o-y), our panel now expects -10.7% and GDP should remain in negative territory into 2021. April was especially hard hit. Durable goods orders fell -17.2% (m-o-m) after a -16.6% drop in March, although core non-defense capital goods orders (a proxy for business and equipment spending) contracted by a somewhat less sharp -5.8% (m-o-m). Our 2020 GDP forecast stands at -5.6% compared with -5.4% last month. May's ISM survey of manufacturing showed the pace of decline in the headline index slowing, but manufacturing remains in deep negative territory, weighing on our panel's industrial production outlook of -9.7%.May did see some regional restrictions lifted, but many factories and workplaces faced obstacles, including delivery issues (domestically and on the export front) amid disruption and plant shutdowns. The ISM report also cited social-distancing measures which limit the number of workers and therefore production. Finally, demand remains highly uncertain. Already, over 40 million people are out of work and initial jobless claims continue to rise (although continuing claims dropped in mid-May). Unemployment last month hit 13.3% (after a 14.7% surge in April), and the Fed has indicated that high joblessness will be here for some time.