CANADA

摘要

The economy built on March's rebound by growing 0.3% (m-o-m) in April, improving prospects for a Q2 revival. An acceleration in mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction to 4.5% (m-o-m) reflected an 11 % surge in oil sands extraction (and offset a -0.8% contraction in manufacturing), as Alberta output cuts have been slowly eased and oil prices rose over the month. A strong performance in energy exports played a part in the surprise trade balance surplus of C$762 million in May, bringing an end to nine consecutive months of trade deficits. On the demand side, a strong jobs report in June showed a surge in average hourly wages to 3.6% (y-o-y) from 2.6% in May, which could fuel further growth in household consumption following its 0.9% (q-o-q) increase in Q1. The crucial approval of the Trans-Mountain Pipeline last month should act as a boon to oil sector investment, which has struggled with insufficient transport links weighing on the international competitiveness of Canadian oil. Nevertheless, trade uncertainty continues to cloud the economic outlook, despite the ratification of the USMCA in Mexico on June 19. The deal remains held up in US Congress while Canadian lawmakers are also preparing to ratify the agreement. Tensions between Ottawa and Beijing also remained heightened this month as Canada suspended meat exports on health and safety grounds.