UNITED STATES

摘要

The consensus US GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been trimmed to 2.5%, after a recent mixed flow of economic indicators for Q2 added to worries that the robust Q1 outturn was more an anomaly than a trend. According to the second Q1 national accounts release, published on May 30, the US expansion was 3.1% (q-o-q annualised), not far off the advance estimate of 3.2%. Yet it also confirmed that the GDP surge was driven by transitory factors, ratherthan solid domestic demand. From a production standpoint, some payback in Q2 seems almost inevitable, which should not alarm, but panellists also hold reservations aboutthe nature of the expansion and whether it can weather unpredictable economic disruptions. It is conceivable that personal consumption could recover after a dull performance in Q1. However, the chances of a resurgence appear somewhat slim, after nonfarm payrolls rose by only +75,000 in May, while readings for March and April were revised down.