FRANCE

摘要

Nationwide transport strikes continued into 2020 but were already starting to peter out by the end of January, which is good news for the French government. Unions were protesting pension reforms which would have likely reduced certain generous public sector provisions. On the economic front, the news was less positive. Manufacturing production ended last year on an exceptionally weak note, largely as a result of the strikes hitting factories. Following a modest -0.4% (m-o-m) fall in November, manufacturing output contracted by a further -2.6% in December on the back of decreases across the main industrial sub-sectors. Equipment goods output was down a significant -5.2% (m-o-m) while transport materials fell -3.5%. Although not included in the manufacturing index, the extractive industries and construction also saw comparably large declines. A broader downturn across Europe did not help. On the upside, January's manufacturing PMI pointed to a turnaround in the French sector, due to a slight rebound in orders and new export business (although staffing did see cuts). It remains to be seen whether this positive start will show up in the production data or can be sustained, especially given the coronavirus impact on trade and supply chains this month. Our panel's production outlook has dropped.