FRANCE

摘要

France managed to buck the trend seen in other parts of the Euro area in Q3, with GDP growth growing by 0.3% (q-o-q) for a third straight quarter, and the y-o-y rate at 1.3% (it was 1.4% in Q2). Activity was supported in part by government stimulus following the gilets jaunes protests earlier this year, helping domestic demand offset a 0.4%-point subtraction from trade in Q3. Consumption maintained a 1.3% y-o-y rate while business spending remained strong at 4.1%, giving a fillip to forecasts for investment. Goods consumption was disappointing in September, though, recording a -0.4% (m-o-m) decline which brought the y-o-y rate down to a mere +0.3%. The weak outturn was attributed to a drop in sales of durables, especially transport materials. On the investment side, last year's labour market reforms are starting to bear fruit and may partly explain why business investment advanced at a 1.2% (q-o-q) clip in Q3, in line with the previous quarter's 1.1% advance. All this paints an unexpectedly positive picture, especially given widespread protests earlier in the year, and when contrasted with Germany. Some commentators suggest that France's economy is more domestically focused, helping to insulate it somewhat from trade headwinds. However, France's multinationals also have a solid export base, and therefore it may only be a matter of time before poor trade dynamics affect the economy. Indeed, manufacturing output retrenched in Q3 2019 by -1.0% (q-o-q) compared with a-0.4% fall in Q2. August was an especially poor month, although September did recover by +0.6% (m-o-m). Our panel's production forecast is at 0.9%.