UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

Results of the UK general election are due after the release of our December report, in what some believe to be the most important poll in a generation. The outcome may define how Brexit unfolds, and thus fundamentally impact on business activity and sentiment in the financial markets. GDP growth has been volatile this year, falling into negative territory in Q2 before a Q3 rebound. Businesses have grappled with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit on two occasions (in March and October), leading to an extremely weak period of business investment. Amid the unprecedented political uncertainty, the 2020 GDP consensus (1.1 %) signals thatthe UK economy will slow next year. In contrast, IMF and European Commission forecasts (1.4%) are more optimistic, but any rebound will likely be from a position of weakness given the poor October GDP report, which suggests that the economy may be on the brink of another contraction in Q4. Rolling three-month GDP growth was flat in October from +0.3% in Q3, with services, manufacturing and construction all disappointing. The services slowdown (from +0.4% to +0.2%) is particularly worrying given its dominance in the UK economy. The November services PMI slipped to 49.3 amid a steep slump in overseas orders, while the manufacturing index highlighted a dismal report on jobs, which were shed at their fastest pace for seven years. Still, the unemployment rate was just 3.8% in Q3, but data showed a moderation in overall job vacancies.