CANADA

摘要

Disappointing growth of +0.1 % (m-o-m) in August suggests further evidence of the downward trajectory that the Canadian economy is expected to take in the second half of 2019. After GDP growth was flat in July, August's marginal acceleration has not lifted the consensus, because y-o-y growth remained at 1.3%, while the recovery from last month's slide in the extractive industries was offset for the most part by a dip in the services sector. A - 1.3% (m-o-m) contraction in wholesale trade was the largest drag on services output, while retail sales growth remained at a modest 0.3%. Most support in August came from an acceleration in the manufacturing sector of 0.5% (m-o-m), although output was flat in y-o-y terms. This has underscored a weaker overall performance as heightened trade uncertainty drives ups and downs in production, which in combination with oil output cuts and declines in investment, has pulled expectations for overall industrial production lower. Ratification of the USMCA this year may provide manufacturers and exporters a boost, while any improvement in US-China tensions would also alleviate concerns. Although working with a minority mandate (following federal elections held on October 21), Prime Minister Trudeau should still be able to push through a likely-expansionary 2020 budget, though more concessions may have to be made.