ITALY

摘要

GDP growth advanced 0.1 % (q-o-q) in Q3, according to the flash estimate. This placid rate of expansion equalled that of the previous three quarters, suggesting that the economy will post a positive annual growth figure in 2019, and thereby cooling earlier fears that it might slip into contraction. In general, though, observers remain downbeat on the chances of a rebound next year, predicting a meagre pace of 0.4%. Istat's Q3 report indicated that domestic demand positively influenced growth, while net exports acted as a drag. Spending and investment remain awfully weak, however, hampered by deep-rooted structural issues, a fragile banking sector, and high level of gross debt. Successive governments have been blamed for the ineffective use of public money, as well as failure to improve productivity and promote innovation amongst businesses. Following a brighter jobs market in August, the unemployment rate bounced back up to 9.9% in September, erasing previous gains. Rigid labour market dynamics have stifled job creation and kept the jobless rate well above the Euro area average. Meanwhile, the industrial sector suffered from unfavourable external conditions, leading to another disappointing outturn in September. The -0.4% (m-o-m) decline erased August's+0.4%gain and marked another contraction in quarterly terms of -0.5% (q-o-q), continuing a trend of falling output and faltering confidence.