CANADA

摘要

2019 growth prospects have remained largely unchanged this month, ahead of a close race in the October 21 election. This comes despite flat GDP growth in July. Temporary shutdowns in the energy sector drove a -3.5% (m-o-m) slump in mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, which dragged growth lower. Some concerns over investment prospects in the oil sector have also lingered, as Alberta oil production limits have been extended to 2020. Although these have gradually eased since their introduction in January, the ongoing output limits could further weigh on the outlook for machinery & equipment investment which recorded a -9.3% (q-o-q) collapse in Q2. Strength in services, however, underpinned growth as the sector expanded 0.3% (m-o-m) for the second consecutive month, buoyed by strong wholesale trade growth and an increase in external demand. A reprieve in US-China trade talks this month could bolster the global trade picture which has weighed on the Canadian outlook this year due to Canada's close trading relationship with the US.