ITALY

摘要

A minor upgrade to Q2 GDP from 0.0% (q-o-q) to +0.1 % did lift our panel's expectations for growth a touch, but it also did little to ease fears over activity. According to the consensus, growth may just break above zero this year at +0.1%, equal to the government's latest forecast published in late September. It expects a modest improvement in 2020 to +0.6%, but this has been downgraded from April. Any rebound in activity looks set to be restricted by a volatile external backdrop and ongoing weakness in domestic demand. Households remain constrained by meagre job creation and prior years of austerity and low growth, which led many to run down savings and permanently rein in spending. An industrial slowdown extended into the summer, with output up just 0.3% (m-o-m) in August, following contractions in four of the previous five months. The y-o-y trend has been even more dismal, falling to -1.8% in August to mark the biggest fall in the year to date, while separately, the latest manufacturing PMI showed the sector stranded in negative territory. A pickup in the services reading, while modest, did indicate that businesses were a little more hopeful on the outlook over the next twelve months. Gross fixed investment has been a brighter spot, recovering from two consecutive q-o-q declines in the second half of 2018 amid a fall in Italy's longer-term debt refinancing costs and on hopes of a period of domestic political stability.