UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

Brexit has pounded confidence and activity in most sectors, but reports on October 17 suggested a deal has been reached between the UK and EU. Parliament could block the agreement, forcing Prime Minister Johnson to seek an extension (in line with an amendment passed by the House of Commons last month), althoughthe EU has dismissed talk of a further delay. Official figures show a deepening impact on labour productivity, which slumped in Q2 to its worst performance in five years. Business investment has been held back by the unprecedented Brexit turbulence, with new projects postponed and resources allocated to contingency planning for a disorderly exit. Business lobbies claim that these preparations will be ramped up unless an agreement is confirmed. After a 0.4% (m-o-m) upturn in July, August's GDP slipped by -0.1 % amid a drop in manufacturing output and flat services growth. The former may see a temporary improvement in September due to stockpiling ahead of the Brexit deadline, but thereafter, tepid demand is likely to extend its rut. Services activity fizzled out according to September's PMI, as the headline figure tumbled below 50 and included a sharp cut in employment. Most experts see the UK economy just evading back-to-back quarterly contractions in GDP growth, despite the poor data.