FRANCE

摘要

Despite global sentiment worsening noticeably amid trade headwinds, the French outlook has remained comparatively resilient - this year's GDP forecast of 1.3% is more than double that of Germany (0.5% this month). The Banque de France has maintained its forecast of 0.3% (q-o-q) forQ3 GDP growth (to be officially released at the end of October) while statistics office INSEE also expects 0.3% (q-o-q) growth through the rest of this year, resulting in an annual GDP forecast of 1.3%, in line with consensus expectations. Lower inflation and tax cuts have helped to support activity; indeed, the headline CPI fell by -0.3% (m-o-m) in September after a 0.5% rise in August, bringing the y-o-y rate down to +0.9%. Otherdata, mainly from August, point to a weaker showing at the end of the summer. Manufacturing production recorded its largest y-o-y drop (-1.6%) for the year so far, while on a m-o-m basis August's -0.8% fall followed July's +0.4% rise. Admittedly, August is usually a month of lower orders and holidays. However, observers also point to the three consecutive months of decline in investment goods output, while machinery & equipment production fell by -3.3% (m-o-m) in August. Both could suggest that business investment in Q3 as a whole was noticeably weakerthan in H1 2019. Forecasts for production have faltered as a result, but those for investment remain largely unchanged. Elsewhere, September's PMI for manufacturing stood at 50.1, down from 51.1 in August but still in growth territory, unlike German and Euro zone PMIs which were in contractionary territory.