GERMANY

摘要

According to recent economic data, momentum across most sectors appears to have stalled further, leaving the economy on the brink of recession. GDP growth declined by -0.1 % (q-o-q) in Q2, and a similar outcome seems the likely scenario in Q3. August's positive industrial production reading of +0.3% (m-o-m) was greeted with muted optimism, since risks linked to weakening global trade and Brexit have shown few signs of abating, leading most commentators to assume that thiswill be short-lived. Moreover, the sharp downward trajectory in factory orders persisted in August, caused mainly by a fall in domestic demand. On top of that, September's manufacturing PMI reported even greater contractions in new orders and output, as it plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade. These worsening developments could trigger more extensive job losses in the months ahead and increase the financial strain on households. Overall, the German labour market has stayed firm, although moderating job creation implies that this resilience may become increasingly difficult to sustain. The ECB's recent decision to restart bond-buying may have contributed to a recovery in the ZEW investor confidence measurement for September, but its headline figure is still languishing in negative territory.