CANADA

摘要

GDP growth bounced back strongly from its more modest stretch since the end of 2018, growing 0.9% (q-o-q) and 3.7% (q-o-q, annualized) in Q2. An outsized contribution from exports, which jumped 3.2% (q-o-q), helped push growth to its impressive Q2 pace and resulted in a modest uptick in our panel's 2019 GDP forecast to 1.5%. However, the Q2 acceleration masked a -0.2% slide in final domestic demand. Growth in household consumption moderated to just+0.1% (q-o-q) in Q2, from +0.7% in Q1, despite the relative tightness of the labour market. A healthy jobs report in August offset some concerns after a muted June and July on the jobs front, as the economy added 81,000 jobs last month, keeping the unemployment rate at 5.7%. However, household indebtedness and higher interest rates led to a pull-back in big purchases. Renewed US-China trade frictions drove a -9.3% (q-o-q) slump in machinery & equipment investment in Q2 which has, in turn, pushed down the consensus this month to a negligeable 0.0%, from +4.1% in August, an unprecedented plunge. The decline in business confidence has come alongside unease in the industrial sector, where manufacturing shrank by -1.4% (m-o-m) in June. While the rebound in mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction did lift industrial production by +1.2% (q-o-q) in Q2, it has yet to completely offset two prior quarters of q-o-q decline.