JAPAN

摘要

The final Q2 national accounts revealed that output in fact advanced by just 0.3% (q-o-q), down from 0.4% in the preliminary report, and less than the 0.5% increase recorded in Q1. A breakdown showed that although private consumption was up by a robust 0.6%, the US-China trade war dented business investment, which rose by only 0.2%, whilst net exports subtracted -0.3pp from total growth. In addition to the disappointing GDP release, latest external accounts data for July were similarly downbeat, as a sharp drop in shipments to Asia meant that exports decreased for an eighth consecutive month, by -1.6% (y-o-y). Meanwhile, imports were also down sizeably, by -1.2%. Elsewhere, other July data displayed a -2.0% (y-o-y) fall in retail sales, marking their first decline of 2019, whilst household spending rose by a lower-than-expected 0.8%. The aforementioned figures suggest that domestic demand remains volatile ahead of the planned sales tax hike (from 8% to 10%) on October 1. However, despite some doom and gloom, policymakers can at least take heart from a preliminary 1.3% (m-o-m) rebound in industrial production in July, together with an unemployment reading of 2.2%, the lowest in 27 years. Interestingly, while the 2019 GDP outlook has been raised, 2020 has faltered. Production, meanwhile, is firmly in recession.