CANADA

摘要

Renewed in tensions between the US and China has again cast a shadow over the outlook for the Canadian economy, despite recent resilience in monthly GDP data. The extended spat between Canada's two largest trade partners, destination for over 80% of Canadian exports, has increased headwinds from a potential pullback in external demand. This has weighed on optimism even as the economy grew 0.2% (m-o-m) in May, which suggests that GDP growth could rebound from its disappointing pace in Q1. Industrial production also remained buoyant in May and has done so since its spike in March, owing mainly to a 1.2% (m-o-m) increase in manufacturing output, although a recent slide in oil prices could push this lower. Solid growth in construction in recent months also suggests that overall investment could maintain momentum following its rebound in Q1, despite delays in the ratification of the USMCA and heightened trade uncertainty. Recent labour market strength has ebbed somewhat as the unemployment rate notched up to 5.7% in July, which alongside a second consecutive monthly decline in May retail growth, will be closely monitored forclues on the health of private consumption in the midst of current external jitters.