FRANCE

摘要

The first release of Q2 GDP showed a solid expansion in y-o-y terms, from 1.1 % at the end of last yearto 1.2% in Q1 and 1.3% in Q2. Household consumption and business investment also saw progression in their annual rates (from 0.8% (y-o-y) in Q1 to 1.3% in Q2 for consumption). However, this belies slightly softer q-o-q momentum. Q2 GDP growth slowed to 0.2% (q-o-q) from 0.3% in Q1, reined in by a similar moderation in household consumption, not to mention a negative contribution from inventories. The softness in consumer activity is especially disappointing given the fiscal stimulus being pumped into the economy. Following months of yellow-vest protests, President Macron unleashed a raft of tax cuts and spending measures designed to placate. Despite these expenditure-boosting measures, the French consumer remains cautious in the wake of public protests. And while overall joblessness has ebbed from a recent high of 8.9% in Q1 of last year to 8.2% in Q2 2019, youth unemployment remains stubbornly high, rising from 18.8% in Q4 2018 to 19.2% in Q1 2019 before dipping to 18.6% in Q2. Meanwhile, June goods consumption faltered from +0.3% (m-o-m) in May to -0.1 % in June, leaving the y-o-y rate at -0.6%. June's m-o-m drop was due to a -1.1% fall in food spending, although purchases of manufactured goods actually rose, by 0.7%, and energy consumption was also up. GDP forecasts remain largely unchanged this month, though investment has been upgraded while consumption has wobbled.