SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS

摘要

Changes in G-7 Quarterly Forecasts for GDP contrast the June 2019 consensus projections in blue (pages 3,28 and 29) with those from December 2018 and June 2018. On the whole, expectations have deteriorated from six months ago. The US consensus anticipates a slowdown as impetus from fiscal spending fades and the trade conflict with China mounts. Germany has suffered a noticeable slump, impacted by its exposure to these global headwinds. GDP growth in the Euro area's next-largest economy, France, is set to outperform Germany as tax concessions and stronger employment boost domestic demand. In Italy, renewed tensions overdebtsustainability between Rome and Brussels risk adding to volatility in financial markets. Canada's weak Q1 showing has ignited growth warnings, while business activity in the UK is burdened by ongoing Brexit uncertainty.