CANADA

摘要

Q1 GDP growth matched the previous quarter's unimpressive rate of 0.1% (q-o-q), but improvement in domestic demand-side factors has lifted some of the gloom surrounding the Canadian outlook for 2019. Household consumption growth accelerated to 0.9% (q-o-q), while machinery & equipment investment advanced 8.7% (q-o-q), rebounding strongly from two prior quarters of contraction. Confidence in consumption was boosted by another solid month of retail sales in March, which rose 0.4% (m-o-m), alongside strength in manufacturing which spurred aO.5% (m-o-m) jump in GDP in the same month. This has fuelled renewed optimism, especially with mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction ending six consecutive months of decline, despite Alberta's curtailments in oil output (though these have eased in recent months). Nevertheless, the slowdown in global trade has weighed on exports, which fell by 1.0% (q-o-q), while reduced competitiveness in the energy sector (due to the tighter spread between Canadian and US crude prices) also played a role. Trade weakness could persist as ratification of the USMCA may be slowed by tense relations, as seen with recent US threats of tariffs on Mexican exports (shelved this week), as well as a spike in US-China tensions. There are also heightened tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, with the latter limiting agriculture imports in recent months.