ITALY

摘要

Updated Q1 national accounts data pulled GDP growth down by 0.1 percentage point to just +0.1% (q-o-q), albeit still beating the -0.1 % dip in Q4 2018. Exports provided the main impetus, possibly aided byatemporaryspikeinUKstockpiling prior to the old Brexit deadline of March 29, as well as a broader resurgence in growth across the Euro area. Household consumption remained subdued, butfixedinvestmentticked up by 0.6% (q-o-q). Confirming the current fragility, the y-o-y growth rate sunk below zero (-0.1 %) for the first time since Q4 2013. The downbeat news has keptthe 2019 GDP consensus under pressure, and provoked deeper concerns over debt sustainability as the governing coalition targets fiscal stimulus to arrest the economy's slump. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini reiterated plans for a positive fiscal shock earlier this month, on the back of his party's impressive European election results which may afford him more political influence and the ability to dictate the government agenda. This followed heavy losses for his coalition allies, the Five Star Movement. However, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco warned that erratic spending could swell the public debt, while the European Commission recently deemed Italy in violation of its debt reduction guidelines. Should the government fail to committo curbing its mounting debt burden, the Commission may open an Excessive Deficit Procedure against Rome.