UNITED STATES

摘要

In line with expectations, the final release of Q4 US GDP growth was downgraded to 2.2% (q-o-q annualised) on March 28, from an earlier estimate of 2.6%. This left the full-year 2018 outturn unchanged at 2.9%. Whereas the pace of exports improved and tariffs acted as a dampener on imports, personal consumption and public expenditure (both at the state and national level) were revised lower. Adjusted figures on non-residential business investment also fell short of what had been first reported, as companies battled against a squeeze in liquidity and supply chain considerations linked to the unresolved US-Sino and other trade disputes. Driven by the 2017 approved Trump-led tax cuts for businesses (which saw corporate tax rates slashed from 35% to 21%), corporate profits surged in Q3 2018. Yet the 'bottom line' slipped in Q4 amid more difficult economic conditions and apparent weakness in overseas demand that sent revenues lower and costs higher. Clearly, momentum loss, external headwinds and diminished fiscal stimulus continue to challenge optimism with regard to the future US growth trajectory.